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What an anticlimax. Not a word. No fanfare. Peak Oil has passed us by and nobody even noticed.
It’s not for certain but many experts(1) say that July 2008 was it – the moment in time when the world passed over the top of Hubbert’s peak. From here on in global oil production is on the decline. The maximum rate achieved was 87million barrels per day, enough to drain 4 Olympic size swimming pools every minute(2). The world could probably have reached a higher figure where it not for what happened next.
Some upcoming events and meetings over the next few days that you may be interested in….
Future Proof Kilkenny Meeting
Cleeres Pub (back room), Parliament St., 8pm Thursday 8th January
The first meeting of the new year will take place this coming Thursday in Cleeres pub at 8pm. We will be discussing the program for the coming year, continuation of the Green Screen and a re-run of the Global Lunch Box, part funded by the Kilkenny County Council. All are welcome.
“400 Fruit Tree” Planning Meeting
BNS Office, Parliament St., 10am Wed 14th January
A planning meeting for the proposed “400 Fruit Tree” project for Kilkenny and environs will take place downstairs in the BNS office, Parliament St. at 10am Wed 14th.
The purpose of the meeting is to:
- outline the project to those wishing to contribute time and/or resources
- set out a timetable for the project (site identification, tree purchasing, planting, pruning)
- set a date/weekend for the planting – in order that it be included in the 400 celebrations
- to suggest additional activities/events that can be organised around the project
- fund raising, sponsorship & gift cards, promotional information etc
If you wish to attend this meeting please contact brian[at]click2go.ie
You can find additional information about the project here.
Green Economic growth seminar
Liberty Hall theatre, Eden Quay, Dublin 1, 2:30pm Sat 10th January
A seminar on economic growth and specifically, as I understand it, whether or not economic growth as measured by GDP can continue in a world of declining resources, especially energy resources. Speakers include;
- Ann Pettifor – UK based political economist and author
- Peter Clynch – Environmental Economist & Special Advisor to An Taoiseach, Brian Cowen
- Richard Douthwaite – Foundation for teh Economics of Sustainability will present the Feasta insights.
- Sue Scott – Economic & Social Research Institute
Below are some bits and pieces recently posted on YouTube.
George Monbiot grills the IEA
Environmental campaigner, George Monbiot, grills chief economist Fatih Birol on the International Energy Agency’s annual World Energy Outlook 2008 report. In the interview Mr. Birol admits that previous estimates of oil field decline were assumptions rather than assessments and that this years report was the first time ever that the IEA conducted a detailed survey. It has found that the average decline rate of oil fields which have passed peak is 6.7% per year, much higher than last years ‘assumption’ of 3.5% per year.
You can read Monbiot’s full interview here and watch the full documentary here.
Branson on Peak Oil
The UK Industry task force on Peak Oil have produced this short summary video of their recent Oil Crunch report. Given that there seems to be no sustainable alternative to jet fuel, it is amazing to hear Richard Branson of Virgin, one of the contributors to the report, speak from his Necker island home on planning for an eventual future ‘without carbon’ – perhaps he meant to say ‘without airlines’…
You can read a summary and get links to the report here.
Gore on 350
At the recent Poznan climate change conference Al Gore spoke of the need to set 350ppm as the safe limit to avoid runaway climate change. This means not only reducing our current emissions to zero but also capturing carbon already in the atmosphere and sequestering it safely. To highlight the importance of the 350 message environmental campaigner Bill Mc Kribben has set up 350.org
Tipping Over
The evidence that we are passing climate tipping points is mounting with the accelerated melting of the summer north pole ice cap and reports of large scale methane release from the Arctic ocean sea bed. In a recent presentation at the University of South Carolina James Hansen, renowned climatologist at the NASA Goddard Space Institute, explains the role of feed-backs in the climate system and why we should expect sea level rise measured in meters rather than centimeters by the end of the century – unless radical action is taken now.
In November, Simon Snowden spoke at our Future Proof your Business seminar on the Oil Vulnerability Audit, a toolkit and methodology on how to assess a business for its exposure to peak oil. After the seminar we conducted a short interview with Simon, the key points of which are transcribed below.
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First poster for ‘A Crude Awakening’
First poster for ‘A Crude Awakening’
2008 has been a busy and fruitful year!
We began with a series of film screenings in and around Kilkenny. At the time oil prices were on an upward trend so there was a lot of concern about the cost of fuel and interest in peak oil was, well, reaching a peak!
The screenings were well attended and were followed with workshops and discussions that gave the message that we were more than just a film club but were attempting to start looking at what we can do locally to prepare for life beyond oil.
- Daniel Lerch, Brian Dillon and Malcolm Noonan
Next up was a co-hosted seminar with the Carlow Kilkenny Renewable Energy Agency called “Housing, Planning & Urban design for a Sustainable Future”. Daniel Lerch from the Post Carbon Institute gave the keynote presentation to a room full of planners, developers, local authority representatives, green energy providers and concerned citizens. In a clear and precise presentation and drawing heavily on his excellent guidebook for local governments, Post Carbon Cities, he set out what steps can be taken to plan and prepare for energy and climate uncertainty.
- The Global Lunch Box flyer. Attractive design caught people’s attention.
May saw the launch of our ambitious “Global Lunch Box” – a series of informal lunchtime workshops exploring local responses to climate change, peak oil and the limits to growth. The press release read:
“Peak Oil and Climate Change are big challenges facing humanity but often the last thing we want to talk about. One of the main reasons behind the Global Lunch Box is to provide a space where people can talk about these important issues, meet like-minded individuals and hopefully inspire a more collective, community wide response.”
The reason for a lunchtime event was to offer something short and snappy that was entertaining and would have people talking about it afterwards. Using different learning skills and techniques the format followed a sequence of warm-up, media clip or slide show, short group discussions, feedback and, to send people away smiling, a humorous or thoughtful closing. The four titles were “Peak Oil Primer”, “Climate Change Café”, “The Story of Stuff” and “Making the Transition”.
The Global Lunch Box put Future Proof Kilkenny into the spot light in the local media and was very well received. The model has since been duplicated by Transition Town Clonmel.
- Brainstorming and harvesting ideas
To consolidate the awareness raised and contacts made we immediately followed with a series of longer more in-depth evening events under the title of “Rethinking the Future”. The purpose of these was to begin looking beyond the problems, to brainstorm how we might respond as a community and to imagine what life might look like in Kilkenny beyond cheap oil and gas.
- Meeting the Minister at the Electric picnic
After a memorable summer giving presentations and workshops at the Electric Picnic and the Green Gathering (and recapturing our youth!) the core group put together a program for the Autumn called “Transition Events”.
Inspired by the Transition Handbook this was divided into 3 sections under the themes “for The Head”, “for The Heart” and “for The Hands”. The aim was to convey the message that tackling climate change and peak oil is not all doom and gloom and that many of the most appropriate solutions are positive and should be done anyway: rebuilding communities, strengthening local economies, diversifying our skills and becoming more self-reliant.
- Monica teaches how to start an orchard
Events “for The Head” continued the awareness raising with seminars on sustainable transport, oil vulnerability auditing, and a timely presentation by FEASTA called “The Money Bubble: From Financial Crisis to the End of Growth”.
Events “for The Heart” focused on the process of rebuilding our social glue, addressing the emotional impact of climate change and creating a sense of association to normalise and re-enforce pro-environmental behavior.
Events “for The Hands” was our first attempt at beginning “the Great Reskilling” and included courses on creating an orchard and domestic renewable energy.
- Cleeres pub, ideal venue for the Green Screen
Finally, in cooperation with the Kilkenny Film Club “the Green Screen” was launched to show films and documentaries that examine the global issues of sustainability, justice, equality and the environment. A Crude Awakening, the Power of Community, History of Oil and Black Gold were this years offerings.
With Agenda 21 funding now under our belt we are in the process of planning out next years Transition Events. These will include a re-run of the Global Lunch Box and the Green Screen, hosting Cultivate’s Powerdown course and some exciting practical projects such as “400 Fruit Trees”, a “50 Mile Meal Award” and a “Green Home Help” group.
- Launching the Autumn 2008 program in Butler House
Perhaps most exciting of all is the seeding of other Transition groups in the county including Thomastown, Callan, MoonCoin and Castlecomer.
2009 should be an interesting year.
Happy Christmas!